Liga Pro · Tuesday, 11 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 66% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Cuenca at 59%, the draw at 26% and Manta FC at 15%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 0.62.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Cuenca have 7 in 23 this season (5 of 11 at home), Manta FC 5 in 23 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Deportivo Cuenca and 0.62 for Manta FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cuenca | 23 | 30% | 13% | 43% |
| Manta FC | 23 | 22% | 9% | 26% |
More: Deportivo Cuenca season stats · Manta FC season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.