2. Deild · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 74% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 73% | 27% | Yes |
The result model puts Vikingur Olafsiik at 36%, the draw at 20% and Selfoss at 43%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 2.16.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vikingur Olafsiik have 9 in 15 this season (5 of 7 at home), Selfoss 13 in 15 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 75%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 1.97 for Vikingur Olafsiik and 2.16 for Selfoss. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Olafsiik | 15 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Selfoss | 15 | 87% | 73% | 93% |
More: Vikingur Olafsiik season stats · Selfoss season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.