1. Division · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 3–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Moss at 38%, the draw at 23% and ODD Ballklubb at 38%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.63.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Moss have 14 in 16 this season (5 of 7 at home), ODD Ballklubb 12 in 16 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Moss and 1.63 for ODD Ballklubb. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moss | 16 | 88% | 56% | 81% |
| ODD Ballklubb | 16 | 75% | 56% | 63% |
More: Moss season stats · ODD Ballklubb season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.