Liga Pro · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Libertad at 35%, the draw at 30% and Universidad Catolica at 34%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Libertad have 10 in 23 this season (5 of 11 at home), Universidad Catolica 10 in 23 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.03 for Libertad and 1.02 for Universidad Catolica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 23 | 43% | 17% | 43% |
| Universidad Catolica | 23 | 43% | 26% | 43% |
More: Libertad season stats · Universidad Catolica season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.