Meistaradeildin · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts KI Klaksvik at 59%, the draw at 23% and HB Torshavn at 18%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KI Klaksvik have 7 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), HB Torshavn 12 in 17 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 38%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.81 for KI Klaksvik and 0.89 for HB Torshavn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KI Klaksvik | 17 | 41% | 29% | 59% |
| HB Torshavn | 17 | 71% | 41% | 71% |
More: KI Klaksvik season stats · HB Torshavn season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.