Liga Pro · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Guayaquil City FC at 44%, the draw at 32% and Emelec at 23%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 0.69.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Guayaquil City FC have 7 in 23 this season (3 of 11 at home), Emelec 4 in 23 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Guayaquil City FC and 0.69 for Emelec. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City FC | 23 | 30% | 17% | 43% |
| Emelec | 23 | 17% | 9% | 39% |
More: Guayaquil City FC season stats · Emelec season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.