Serie C · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 3–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Ypiranga-RS at 37%, the draw at 33% and Floresta at 30%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ypiranga-RS have 8 in 15 this season (2 of 8 at home), Floresta 8 in 15 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Ypiranga-RS and 0.81 for Floresta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ypiranga-RS | 15 | 53% | 7% | 60% |
| Floresta | 15 | 53% | 7% | 67% |
More: Ypiranga-RS season stats · Floresta season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.