1. Deild · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 71% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Völsungur at 33%, the draw at 21% and HK Kopavogur at 46%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 2.07.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Völsungur have 10 in 16 this season (5 of 8 at home), HK Kopavogur 12 in 16 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 1.73 for Völsungur and 2.07 for HK Kopavogur. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Völsungur | 16 | 63% | 50% | 63% |
| HK Kopavogur | 16 | 75% | 56% | 75% |
More: Völsungur season stats · HK Kopavogur season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.