1. Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 73% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Stromsgodset at 62%, the draw at 18% and Egersund at 20%, from expected goals of 2.57 and 1.46.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stromsgodset have 11 in 16 this season (6 of 8 at home), Egersund 12 in 16 (7 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 2.57 for Stromsgodset and 1.46 for Egersund. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stromsgodset | 16 | 69% | 44% | 63% |
| Egersund | 16 | 75% | 44% | 50% |
More: Stromsgodset season stats · Egersund season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.