Super League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Shandong Luneng at 52%, the draw at 23% and Tianjin Teda at 24%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shandong Luneng have 15 in 21 this season (8 of 10 at home), Tianjin Teda 10 in 20 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Shandong Luneng and 1.12 for Tianjin Teda. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Luneng | 21 | 71% | 43% | 71% |
| Tianjin Teda | 20 | 50% | 20% | 55% |
More: Shandong Luneng season stats · Tianjin Teda season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.