1. Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 3–4 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Sandnes ULF at 50%, the draw at 23% and Hodd at 26%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sandnes ULF have 7 in 16 this season (4 of 8 at home), Hodd 10 in 16 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Sandnes ULF and 1.22 for Hodd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandnes ULF | 16 | 44% | 31% | 50% |
| Hodd | 16 | 63% | 38% | 63% |
More: Sandnes ULF season stats · Hodd season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.