Serie C · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 63% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Maranhão at 39%, the draw at 28% and Brusque at 32%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maranhão have 6 in 15 this season (3 of 7 at home), Brusque 7 in 15 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Maranhão and 1.09 for Brusque. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Maranhão season stats · Brusque season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.