Super League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Henan Jianye at 52%, the draw at 24% and Qingdao Youth Island at 24%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Henan Jianye have 12 in 20 this season (5 of 10 at home), Qingdao Youth Island 8 in 21 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Henan Jianye and 1.11 for Qingdao Youth Island. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Jianye | 20 | 60% | 10% | 60% |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 21 | 38% | 29% | 67% |
More: Henan Jianye season stats · Qingdao Youth Island season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.