Czech Liga · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts FK Jablonec at 64%, the draw at 21% and Slovácko at 16%, from expected goals of 2.01 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FK Jablonec have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Slovácko 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.01 for FK Jablonec and 0.88 for Slovácko. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Slovácko | 2 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
More: FK Jablonec season stats · Slovácko season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.