1. Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Fredericia at 57%, the draw at 22% and Vendsyssel FF at 21%, from expected goals of 1.98 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Fredericia have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Vendsyssel FF 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.98 for FC Fredericia and 1.12 for Vendsyssel FF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fredericia | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Vendsyssel FF | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
More: FC Fredericia season stats · Vendsyssel FF season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.