1. Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Fredericia at 60%, the draw at 22% and Vendsyssel FF at 18%, from expected goals of 2.03 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Fredericia have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Vendsyssel FF 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.03 for FC Fredericia and 1.02 for Vendsyssel FF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fredericia | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Vendsyssel FF | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
More: FC Fredericia season stats · Vendsyssel FF season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.