Liga de Expansión · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts CDS Tampico Madero at 51%, the draw at 29% and Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 20%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 0.71.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CDS Tampico Madero have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Cruz Azul Hidalgo 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.31 for CDS Tampico Madero and 0.71 for Cruz Azul Hidalgo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDS Tampico Madero | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: CDS Tampico Madero season stats · Cruz Azul Hidalgo season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.