1. SNL · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Bravo at 38%, the draw at 25% and Brinje-Grosuplje at 36%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bravo have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Brinje-Grosuplje 1 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 69% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Bravo and 1.38 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bravo | 3 | 67% | 0% | 33% |
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
More: Bravo season stats · Brinje-Grosuplje season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.