A Lyga · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Banga at 43%, the draw at 28% and Suduva Marijampole at 29%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Banga have 9 in 23 this season (6 of 10 at home), Suduva Marijampole 11 in 22 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Banga and 1 for Suduva Marijampole. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banga | 23 | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Suduva Marijampole | 22 | 50% | 18% | 55% |
More: Banga season stats · Suduva Marijampole season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.