1. Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 72% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Asane at 30%, the draw at 20% and Kongsvinger at 50%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 2.21.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Asane have 11 in 16 this season (7 of 8 at home), Kongsvinger 14 in 16 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Asane and 2.21 for Kongsvinger. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asane | 16 | 69% | 44% | 50% |
| Kongsvinger | 16 | 88% | 56% | 81% |
More: Asane season stats · Kongsvinger season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.