Serie C · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 68% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts AO Itabaiana at 38%, the draw at 31% and Caxias at 31%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AO Itabaiana have 4 in 15 this season (3 of 7 at home), Caxias 5 in 15 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 1.03 for AO Itabaiana and 0.9 for Caxias. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AO Itabaiana | 15 | 27% | 20% | 40% |
| Caxias | 15 | 33% | 0% | 53% |
More: AO Itabaiana season stats · Caxias season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.