Liga de Expansión · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–5 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 50% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Tepatitlán at 47%, the draw at 26% and CA La Paz at 28%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tepatitlán have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), CA La Paz 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 35% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Tepatitlán and 1.1 for CA La Paz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tepatitlán | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| CA La Paz | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Tepatitlán season stats · CA La Paz season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.