Liga Pro · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts LDU de Quito at 22%, the draw at 24% and Independiente del Valle at 53%, from expected goals of 1 and 1.68.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. LDU de Quito have 6 in 23 this season (3 of 11 at home), Independiente del Valle 15 in 23 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1 for LDU de Quito and 1.68 for Independiente del Valle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 23 | 26% | 4% | 35% |
| Independiente del Valle | 23 | 65% | 43% | 48% |
More: LDU de Quito season stats · Independiente del Valle season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.