Serie C · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Inter De Limeira at 49%, the draw at 29% and Volta Redonda at 22%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Inter De Limeira have 8 in 15 this season (4 of 7 at home), Volta Redonda 5 in 15 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Inter De Limeira and 0.77 for Volta Redonda. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter De Limeira | 15 | 53% | 20% | 60% |
| Volta Redonda | 15 | 33% | 13% | 27% |
More: Inter De Limeira season stats · Volta Redonda season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.