2. Deild · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 68% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Hvíti Riddarinn at 54%, the draw at 21% and Magni at 26%, from expected goals of 2.28 and 1.54.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hvíti Riddarinn have 7 in 15 this season (3 of 7 at home), Magni 11 in 15 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 2.28 for Hvíti Riddarinn and 1.54 for Magni. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hvíti Riddarinn | 15 | 47% | 47% | 60% |
| Magni | 15 | 73% | 60% | 80% |
More: Hvíti Riddarinn season stats · Magni season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.