1. Deild · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 75% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 73% | 27% | Yes |
The result model puts Grotta at 24%, the draw at 18% and Throttur Reykjavik at 58%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 2.7.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Grotta have 13 in 15 this season (7 of 7 at home), Throttur Reykjavik 8 in 16 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 78% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 82%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Grotta and 2.7 for Throttur Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grotta | 15 | 87% | 47% | 80% |
| Throttur Reykjavik | 16 | 50% | 44% | 63% |
More: Grotta season stats · Throttur Reykjavik season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.