2. Deild · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 74% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 72% | 28% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjolnir at 76%, the draw at 13% and KFG at 11%, from expected goals of 3.13 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjolnir have 13 in 15 this season (6 of 8 at home), KFG 12 in 15 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 3.13 for Fjolnir and 1.19 for KFG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Fjolnir season stats · KFG season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.