2. Deild · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 75% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 23% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 49%, the draw at 19% and Haukar at 32%, from expected goals of 2.41 and 1.96.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjardabyggd / Leiknir have 12 in 15 this season (7 of 8 at home), Haukar 13 in 15 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 76%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 74%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 75%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 2.41 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir and 1.96 for Haukar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 77%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 15 | 80% | 67% | 60% |
| Haukar | 15 | 87% | 53% | 73% |
More: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir season stats · Haukar season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.