Superettan · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Falkenbergs FF at 53%, the draw at 25% and United Nordic at 23%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Falkenbergs FF have 13 in 17 this season (4 of 8 at home), United Nordic 8 in 17 (2 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Falkenbergs FF and 0.97 for United Nordic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkenbergs FF | 17 | 76% | 47% | 82% |
| United Nordic | 17 | 47% | 41% | 65% |
More: Falkenbergs FF season stats · United Nordic season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.