Ligue 2 · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 4–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 22% | 78% | No |
The result model puts Dunkerque at 47%, the draw at 26% and Grenoble at 28%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 0% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dunkerque have 0 in 0 this season, Grenoble 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 0% and 0%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Dunkerque and 1.09 for Grenoble. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Dunkerque season stats · Grenoble season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.