Super League · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Dalian Zhixing at 53%, the draw at 24% and Shenyang Urban at 22%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dalian Zhixing have 13 in 20 this season (7 of 10 at home), Shenyang Urban 13 in 20 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.67 for Dalian Zhixing and 0.98 for Shenyang Urban. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Zhixing | 20 | 65% | 45% | 65% |
| Shenyang Urban | 20 | 65% | 40% | 55% |
More: Dalian Zhixing season stats · Shenyang Urban season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.