Promotion League · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 70% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Breitenrain at 38%, the draw at 23% and Bulle at 39%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breitenrain have 1 in 1 this season, Bulle 1 in 1 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 58% and 79%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.67 for Breitenrain and 1.69 for Bulle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breitenrain | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| Bulle | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Breitenrain season stats · Bulle season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.