Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Bodø / Glimt W at 12%, the draw at 17% and Molde W at 72%, from expected goals of 0.86 and 2.41.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bodø / Glimt W have 8 in 10 this season (3 of 4 at home), Molde W 9 in 11 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 0.86 for Bodø / Glimt W and 2.41 for Molde W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø / Glimt W | 10 | 80% | 60% | 50% |
| Molde W | 11 | 82% | 64% | 64% |
More: Bodø / Glimt W season stats · Molde W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.