Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 73% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Åland United W at 53%, the draw at 19% and Ilves W at 28%, from expected goals of 2.53 and 1.83.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Åland United W have 10 in 14 this season (6 of 7 at home), Ilves W 11 in 14 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 2.53 for Åland United W and 1.83 for Ilves W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Åland United W | 14 | 71% | 71% | 64% |
| Ilves W | 14 | 79% | 50% | 64% |
More: Åland United W season stats · Ilves W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.