Liga de Expansión · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Leones Negros UDG at 51%, the draw at 23% and Correcaminos Uat at 26%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leones Negros UDG have 1 in 2 this season, Correcaminos Uat 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 44% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.22 for Correcaminos Uat. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Correcaminos Uat | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Leones Negros UDG season stats · Correcaminos Uat season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.