Super League · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 4–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Beijing Guoan at 78%, the draw at 14% and Sichuan Jiuniu at 8%, from expected goals of 2.59 and 0.7.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Beijing Guoan have 12 in 20 this season (7 of 11 at home), Sichuan Jiuniu 11 in 21 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.59 for Beijing Guoan and 0.7 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan | 20 | 60% | 30% | 70% |
| Sichuan Jiuniu | 21 | 52% | 29% | 52% |
More: Beijing Guoan season stats · Sichuan Jiuniu season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.