1. Deild · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 4–0). Before kick-off we rated it 71% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Afturelding at 68%, the draw at 15% and Grindavik at 17%, from expected goals of 3.15 and 1.6.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Afturelding have 11 in 15 this season (5 of 7 at home), Grindavik 6 in 16 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 85%, from expected goals of 3.15 for Afturelding and 1.6 for Grindavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afturelding | 15 | 73% | 60% | 67% |
| Grindavik | 16 | 38% | 31% | 44% |
More: Afturelding season stats · Grindavik season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.