Liga de Expansión · Thursday, 6 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Tlaxcala at 50%, the draw at 22% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 28%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tlaxcala have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Tlaxcala and 1.4 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
More: Tlaxcala season stats · Alebrijes de Oaxaca season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.