1. Deild · Thursday, 6 August 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–0). Our pre-match rating was 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts IR Reykjavik at 70%, the draw at 17% and Ægir at 13%, from expected goals of 2.53 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IR Reykjavik have 11 in 16 this season (4 of 8 at home), Ægir 12 in 16 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.53 for IR Reykjavik and 1.04 for Ægir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Reykjavik | 16 | 69% | 50% | 75% |
| Ægir | 16 | 75% | 50% | 63% |
More: IR Reykjavik season stats · Ægir season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.