Liga Pro · Tuesday, 4 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 67% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts LDU de Quito at 61%, the draw at 27% and Delfin SC at 12%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 0.44.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. LDU de Quito have 5 in 22 this season (2 of 10 at home), Delfin SC 5 in 22 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 1.4 for LDU de Quito and 0.44 for Delfin SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 22 | 23% | 5% | 32% |
| Delfin SC | 22 | 23% | 9% | 27% |
More: LDU de Quito season stats · Delfin SC season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.