Kvindeligaen (W) · Tuesday, 4 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Fortuna Hjørring W at 46%, the draw at 25% and Midtjylland W at 29%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Hjørring W have 1 in 1 this season, Midtjylland W 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Fortuna Hjørring W and 1.18 for Midtjylland W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Hjørring W | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Midtjylland W | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
More: Fortuna Hjørring W season stats · Midtjylland W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.