A Lyga · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 1–2). Our pre-match rating was 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Šiauliai at 16%, the draw at 25% and Banga at 58%, from expected goals of 0.67 and 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Šiauliai have 12 in 23 this season (6 of 10 at home), Banga 8 in 22 (2 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 42%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 0.67 for Šiauliai and 1.55 for Banga. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Šiauliai season stats · Banga season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.