1. Division · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 3–4 (half-time 1–2). Our pre-match rating was 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 22% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Ranheim at 43%, the draw at 18% and Haugesund at 39%, from expected goals of 2.68 and 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ranheim have 14 in 15 this season (7 of 8 at home), Haugesund 12 in 15 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 77% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 89%, from expected goals of 2.68 for Ranheim and 2.55 for Haugesund. Folding in 30% of that view gives 78%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Ranheim season stats · Haugesund season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.