Superettan · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 1–0). Our pre-match rating was 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Orebro SK at 46%, the draw at 26% and IFK Varnamo at 28%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orebro SK have 6 in 16 this season (3 of 8 at home), IFK Varnamo 10 in 16 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Orebro SK and 1.08 for IFK Varnamo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orebro SK | 16 | 38% | 19% | 50% |
| IFK Varnamo | 16 | 63% | 50% | 44% |
More: Orebro SK season stats · IFK Varnamo season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.