HB Torshavn v NSI Runavik — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Meistaradeildin · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 71% for over 2.5 goals.

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Our ratings for this match

Market	Yes	No	Our call
Over 2.5 goals	71%	29%	Over
Over 3.5 goals	49%	51%	Over
Both teams to score	62%	38%	Yes

The result model puts HB Torshavn at 33%, the draw at 20% and NSI Runavik at 47%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 2.24.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. HB Torshavn have 11 in 16 this season (3 of 7 at home), NSI Runavik 8 in 16 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 62%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.

Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 1.87 for HB Torshavn and 2.24 for NSI Runavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Team	Games	O2.5	O3.5	BTTS
HB Torshavn	16	69%	38%	69%
NSI Runavik	16	50%	25%	50%

Head to head

8 May 26NSI Runavik 2–1 HB TorshavnO2.5

19 Oct 25HB Torshavn 3–0 NSI RunavikO2.5

25 May 25NSI Runavik 1–4 HB TorshavnO2.5

3 May 25HB Torshavn 1–7 NSI RunavikO2.5

27 Aug 24NSI Runavik 3–2 HB TorshavnO2.5

2 Jun 24NSI Runavik 2–3 HB TorshavnO2.5

Things worth knowing

HB Torshavn return after a break of about 4 weeks — our research found form streaks reset over long lay-offs.
NSI Runavik return after a break of about 4 weeks.

More: HB Torshavn season stats · NSI Runavik season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.