Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 2 August 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 62% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts AB at 48%, the draw at 24% and Skála at 28%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AB have 9 in 17 this season (5 of 8 at home), Skála 9 in 16 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.75 for AB and 1.3 for Skála. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: AB season stats · Skála season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.