Super League · Sunday, 26 July 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 58% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Chengdu Better City at 50%, the draw at 25% and Beijing Guoan at 25%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chengdu Better City have 10 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), Beijing Guoan 10 in 18 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 18 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Chengdu Better City and 1.12 for Beijing Guoan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chengdu Better City | 19 | 53% | 32% | 58% |
| Beijing Guoan | 18 | 56% | 28% | 67% |
More: Chengdu Better City season stats · Beijing Guoan season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.