Super League · Saturday, 25 July 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Wuhan Three Towns at 45%, the draw at 26% and Chongqing Tongliang Long at 28%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wuhan Three Towns have 10 in 18 this season (3 of 8 at home), Chongqing Tongliang Long 7 in 19 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 18 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.14 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 56% | 50% | 67% |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 37% | 26% | 58% |
More: Wuhan Three Towns season stats · Chongqing Tongliang Long season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.