1. Deild · Thursday, 16 July 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 67% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Afturelding at 64%, the draw at 19% and Leiknir R. at 18%, from expected goals of 2.44 and 1.23.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Afturelding have 9 in 13 this season (4 of 6 at home), Leiknir R. 7 in 13 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 70% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.44 for Afturelding and 1.23 for Leiknir R.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afturelding | 13 | 69% | 54% | 62% |
| Leiknir R. | 13 | 54% | 15% | 46% |
More: Afturelding season stats · Leiknir R. season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.