Serie C · Sunday, 12 July 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 37% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Barra at 34%, the draw at 30% and Santa Cruz at 36%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Barra have 6 in 13 this season (3 of 6 at home), Santa Cruz 2 in 13 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Barra and 1.13 for Santa Cruz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barra | 13 | 46% | 15% | 54% |
| Santa Cruz | 13 | 15% | 8% | 38% |
More: Barra season stats · Santa Cruz season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.