Super League · Saturday, 4 July 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Shenyang Urban at 41%, the draw at 26% and Chongqing Tongliang Long at 33%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shenyang Urban have 11 in 16 this season (6 of 8 at home), Chongqing Tongliang Long 6 in 16 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Shenyang Urban and 1.28 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shenyang Urban | 16 | 69% | 38% | 50% |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 16 | 38% | 25% | 50% |
More: Shenyang Urban season stats · Chongqing Tongliang Long season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.